It seems neither the EU nor the US really want the Ukrainian grain problem solved or the damn war stopped anytime soon. Otherwise they`d have already quit begging favours (for shame!) of Putin and revoked all sanctions imposed on Belarus in exchange for denying Putin any military help and staying neutral. No military transportation/transit from either side and all Russian military forces out of Belarus back to Russia immediately, first of all.
Of course Lukashenko is a dictator. But, unlike Putin, he is not demented. You cannot reason with a manic madman, but you can try parley with a thrifty dictator; he might just decide to choose what`s more profitable for him. I suppose Lukashenko is still sane enough to see accepting the offer would pay, and in more senses than one, at that.
The solution could be a win-win for everybody except Putin`s Russia (and perhaps Светочка, but the lady can wait for better times, she`s still young enough). Starving countries get more Ukrainian grain and get it sooner; Ukraine no longer has to fear a stab in the back and can relocate their forces now stranded along that border to where they need them most instead; European farmers can stop lamenting over fertilizers unattainable; the Byelorussians that have nothing to do with the crazy war most of them hate are no longer undeservedly branded “aggressors” all around the world; hapless truckers from various countries now suffocating in exhaustive lines can cross faster… and much more. But the nicest thing of all would be Putin surprised out of his shoes!
Telling Putin to pick up his tin soldiers and go play in his own sandbox might seem above Lukashenko`s strength, but in fact it is not. Where there`s a will (and especially a boon), there`s a way. Besides, Батько is hardly naïve enough to truly believe his buddy will be sated once he has devoured Ukraine. On Putler`s prospective Drang Nach Westen, Belarus might well be next, if only to round it off and/or as a formality. As for buddy-buddy promises and treaties signed… do I really need to expatiate on that?
Making the Russian military forces already in Belarus to clear out might prove difficult still not impracticable. Stop feeding them unless and until they go, for one. Lest they should move the wrong direction, block all the ways leading to Ukraine while leaving all roads back to Russia wide open, maybe even strewn with flowers. Byelorussian railway workers and hackers and other “saboteurs” have already proven they can hinder Russian military transfer in spite of the authorities; with the say-so from Lukashenko, much more could be done.
Afraid lest things like that make Putin do something even more horrible? Well, he will do whatever he damn pleases anyway. Look of what avail “trying not to hurt his feelings” and “helping him to save face” has been, to date. As it is, putlerists ridicule all sanctions, declaring they expected something more serious. Perhaps it would be not out of place to give them what they expect? There`s also a possibility verging towards probability that the madman bereft of his Best Buddy might waver…
The offer of revoking all sanctions imposed on Belarus in exchange for denying Putin any military help and staying neutral must be made immediately, without debates lasting for weeks and months and years. Lukashenko should be made to clearly understand it is a one-time offer, take it or leave it, but do it at once. No additional terms to be laid down, bar perhaps politely suggesting death penalty for mere “intentions” is plain stupid. Because the objective is preventing global famine and curbing the damn war, not reeducating a dictator who is incorrigible anyway. Just business, as the saying goes.
Dear Powers That Be! Please do not sanctimoniously state We Do Not Have Dealings With Dictators! You know you do, and with worse, to boot. When much less is at stake, too. Or have the decency to publicly admit your ambitions are more important than half the world in a sorry plight.